“Decision-making is everything. In fact, someone who makes decisions right 80% of the time instead of 70% of the time will be valued and compensated in the market hundreds of times more. “
If there are hundreds of alternatives and if you cannot decide, the answer is no.
Split between two even paths: take the path that is more difficult and more painful in the short-term.
Take the choice that will leave you calmer in the long term.
Is there any reason to suspect the team making the recommendation of errors motivated by self-interest?
Review the proposal with extra care, especially for overoptimism.
Has the team fallen in love with its proposal?
Rigorously apply all the quality controls on the checklist.
Were there dissenting opinions within the team? Were they explored adequately? Solicit dissenting views, discreetly if necessary. Challenge Questions: Ask the recommenders
Could the diagnosis be overly influenced by an analogy to a memorable success?
Ask for more analogies, and rigorously analyze their similarity to the current situation.
Are credible alternatives included along with the recommendation?
Request additional options.
If you had to make this decision again in a year’s time, what information would you want, and can you get more of it now?
Use checklists of the data needed for each kind of decision.
Do you know where the numbers came from? Can there be …unsubstantiated numbers? …extrapolation from history? …a motivation to use a certain anchor?
Reanchor with figures generated by other models or benchmarks, and request new analysis.
Is the team assuming that a person, organization, or approach that is successful in one area will be just as successful in another?
Eliminate false inferences, and ask the team to seek additional comparable examples.
Are the recommenders overly attached to a history of past decisions?
Consider the issue as if you were a new CEO.
Evaluation Questions: Ask about the proposal
Is the base case overly optimistic?
Have the team build a case taking an outside view; use war games.
Is the worst case bad enough?
Have the team conduct a premortem: Imagine that the worst has happened, and develop a story about the causes.
Is the recommending team overly cautious?
Realign incentives to share responsibility for the risk or to remove risk.